Weekly Economic Indicators: November 25, 2013

The schedule for the week of November 25th includes:

  • Monday:  Pending Home Sales Index, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey, 3-Month Bill Auction, 6-Month Bill Auction, and 2-Yr Note Auction
  • Tuesday:  Housing Starts, FHFA House Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Federal Reserve (“Fed”) Manufacturing Index, State Street Investor Confidence Index, 4-Week Bill Auction, and 5-Yr Note Auction
  • Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment, Leading Indicators, and 7-Yr Note Auction  
  • Thursday:  US Holiday: Thanksgiving Day All Markets Closed.  
  • Friday:  10-Yr TIPS, NYSE Early Close, and Fed Balance Sheet  

Click here for a more comprehensive economic calendar for the week.

Economic Indicators - What to Watch

This week, I spoke with Benedict Willis III, Managing Director of Albert Fried & Company, LLC., and frequent commentator on Bloomberg, CNBC, and FOX Business, about the economic calendar for next week.  This holiday shortened week, Willis will be focused on the overall market, retail shopping season, and housing data.  A complete list is included above.

Overall Market View 

With three and a half days of trading this week, the trader’s almanac will tell you the week is setting up to be a busy one, despite some market participants being away for the holidays.  The equity markets will continue to go higher because the global economy is improving and there is an easy central bank policy across the globe.  The focus will continue to be on global central banks.  Japan is expected to keep pumping more funds into its economy and devaluating its currency, while China is anticipated to continue its economic reform to internalize its economy.  The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have pledged to maintain their easy monetary policy and the Fed reiterated that it will continue its bond buying program.  Willis is hoping for a pullback in the equity markets as they are great buying opportunities, but he does not see one on the horizon. 

Retailers and Black Friday

Retailers are trying to monetize and capitalize on “Black Friday” by moving it a week ahead, said Willis.  The brick-and-mortar retailers are trying to accelerate the biggest shopping season a week ahead, because they are facing enormous competition from online retailers with razor thin margins. According to Willis, there are huge expectations for retailers to perform well this season, as the back to school season was less than stellar. 

Housing Data

It appears that the housing market is taking a breather; existing homes sales are up more than 6% for the year. The Fed knows the importance of this sector. It is significant for the psychology of the market.  People who buy houses tend to spend more and purchase additional items like appliances and then do repairs on their homes.  This week the economic calendar is loaded with housing data, including existing and pending homes sales. Market participants will be looking for clues on the sector, particularly with fluctuating mortgage rates. 

Final Word

Willis would like to extend a Happy Thanksgiving to all, enjoy the day with your friends and family.  He would also like to thank those men and women who have put themselves in harm’s way to defend our way of life, so we can benefit from the freedoms of America. 

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