Clarke Dryden Camper is Senior Vice President, Head of Government Affairs and Public Advocacy at NYSE Euronext, a...
Should market watchers tune in to Sunday’s Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay Super Bowl to try to divine the market’s movement over the coming year? Some believe that an NFC win foretells an increase in stock prices, while an AFC victory signals a bear market. This so-called Super Bowl Indicator has a success rate of around 80 percent – outstripping Punxsutawney Phil as a prognosticator of the future.
Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, writes on Market Watch that since both the Steelers and the Packers can trace their roots back to the original NFL, followers of the Super Bowl Indictor could be feeling bullish regardless of the outcome. Yet Hulbert notes that research a couple years back by Caltech Professor David Leinweber found an even better indicator to correlate with the S&P’s movement – the production of butter in Bangladesh. Now, Professor Leinweber is back with an indicator that can “explain” 92 percent of the variance in the DJIA: the number of buried treasures discovered in England and Wales in any given year.
So this year it seems it’s safe for market bulls to root for either Green Bay or Pittsburgh – as long as they’re also pulling for a bull market in Bangladeshi butter and a banner year for English/Welsh antiquities.